Parabellum Esports entered Playday 3 hot after back-to-back wins against Oxygen Esports (4-7) and XSET (7-5), but they were no match for Spacestation Gaming, who took them to Border and won 7-3. Unfortunately, Parabellum did not look much better last week when they lost against DarkZero (5-7) on Kafe.

Evidently, Parabellum have lost their momentum, so it’s fair to doubt them ahead of their clash against Astralis, who are trending in the opposite direction. Astralis started the third stage of North American League 0-2 with defeats against DarkZero (6-8) and Mirage (4-7), but they bounced back last week with wins against TSM (7-4) and beastcoast (8-6).

Despite their hot streak, Astralis have not looked too clean as a unit. Roman “Forrest” Breaux has done most of the heavy lifting – particularly in the match against beastcoast, where he averaged a 1.86 rating – and it’s hard to back a team that relies so much on a single player.

Astralis have been playing better lately, but we wouldn’t bet on them at $1.44. These are still two evenly matched teams talent-wise, so we’ll take over 11.5 rounds at $1.80.

Oxygen Esports are 0-4 with defeats against Parabellum Esports (4-7), Spacestation Gaming (7-8), Mirage (4-7), and XSET, who beat them 7-2 last Wednesday. With four defeats, Oxygen’s chances of reaching the Major are essentially gone, which should relieve them of some pressure knowing that they don’t have anything more to fight for. Reportedly, the players are looking to swap roles for the remainder of the competition, so we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

TSM, meanwhile, are 3-0-0-1 after four days of play, which sits them atop the standings, tied with Soniqs with nine points. Last week, they suffered their first defeat of the stage against Astralis (4-7), but they bounced back in style with a 7-3 victory against Soniqs. Although Soniqs had an uncharacteristically poor performance on the day, it’s hard to ignore how good TSM have been playing over the last two weeks.

At the offered Rainbow Six Siege betting odds, it’s hard not to bet on TSM to win. They might be overperforming, but TSM have definitely shown more than Oxygen Esports.

DarkZero Esports picked up two wins last week, taking down beastcoast (7-4) and Parabellum Esports (7-5). There were some close moments in both games, but DarkZero came through and closed out the deal to go 2-1-0-1 on the stage.

Spacestation Gaming were just as successful last week, with wins against Parabellum Esports (7-3) and Mirage (8-6). Although you could argue that going into overtime against Mirage doesn’t look good, we must acknowledge that Mirage are performing much better than expected.

DarkZero and Spacestation Gaming are 1-1 in the head-to-head this season. DarkZero won the first meeting in NAL Stage 1 (7-5) but lost the rematch in June (2-7). Since then, the teams have achieved similar success, and there isn’t much to separate them based on their showings in NAL Stage 3.

This seems like a coin-flip match, so we have to side with Spacestation Gaming at outsider odds.

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All matches played on the final day of Rainbow Six Siege North American League Stage 2 will be extremely important for all but three teams. Oxygen Esports have already booked their plane tickets for Berlin, while Mirage and beastcoast are the only teams locked out from a top-four finish, which leaves seven Rainbow Six Siege esports teams to battle it out for a spot at the event.

TSM could have joined Oxygen a while back had they not lost three of their last four games against XSET (4-7), DarkZero (3-7) and Parabellum Esports, who defeated them 7-3 on Wednesday. Similarly, beastcoast could be in a much better spot had they not stumbled against Mirage (5-7) and Soniqs (2-7) in the sixth and seventh rounds.

The esports betting sites have priced beastcoast at $2.62, which we disagree with. Beastcoast can enter this game without any pressure and are good enough to defeat TSM, as they did back in April (7-2). The value is with the underdogs.

Soniqs lost (5-7) against Mirage last week in one of the biggest upsets of NAL Stage 2. Despite losing the match, Soniqs played well, but it was evident that they were not themselves, signifying that Soniqs might struggle under pressure. Pablo “Gryxr” Rebeil was the only player on the team with a positive rating (1.54), while his teammates averaged 0.64-0.80.

It was Soniqs’ only second defeat since Day 4, so we wouldn’t overreact to it, but they’ll need to be on top of their game if they wish to defeat Parabellum Esports. The latter enter this match on a three-game winning streak with wins against Spacestation Gaming (8-7), Mirage (7-1), and TSM, who Parabellum defeated 7-3 on Wednesday.

Soniqs’ shaky performance last week could make anyone doubt their chances to defeat Parabellum, but we have to remember that Soniqs are an incredibly stacked team. Gyxrs is the current second-ranked player in the league (1.24) and has the best K/D (+37), while his teammates Richie “Rexen” Coronado, Evan “Kanzen” Bushore, and Seth “supr” Hoffman are ranked inside the top two in Entry, Clutches, and Plants.

It could be close, but it’s tough to doubt Soniqs with the roster they have.

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?Esports betting sites have priced DarkZero and XSET at the same odds, which doesn’t look right. Admittedly, the teams have achieved similar success, but that doesn’t mean DarkZero are as strong as XSET.

XSET are 3-1-1-1 with wins against TSM and Soniqs, which alone is enough to rank XSET as one of the top two teams in the league. On the other side, DarkZero are 3-0-0-3, and even though they won against TSM (7-3) last week, this remains their only notable victory of NAL Stage 2.

There isn’t much to talk about for this match. XSET are stronger than DarkZero, who have only looked good in one of their games. Admittedly, XSET have had some shaky games, but they seem to be on the comeback and look an excellent bet at the offered R6S betting odds.

?Spacestation Gaming were very dominant last season, but they’ve yet to impress in this stage. They’re 2-0-2-2, meaning their chances of making the Major are slim to none, especially considering the schedule ahead.

For SSG to keep their dreams alive, they need to win against Oxygen Esports on Wednesday, which is highly unlikely. That’s not only because SSG are not playing that well, but mainly because Oxygen Esports are the current best team in the NAL Stage 2.

Sitting on the top of the pile, Oxygen Esports hold a 3-2-0-1 record, and their only defeat came against Soniqs during the fourth Playday. Since then, Oxygen have picked up wins against Mirage (7-5) and Astralis (7-5), which might not be the most impressive scores, but the eye test would prove that Oxygen were in full control in both series.

Based on what we’ve seen in the last few weeks, Oxygen Esports to win with at least two rounds to spare at $1.72 is an easy choice.

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The organization confirmed the news via Twitter:

“We would like to share another update on our Rainbow Six NAL roster. We say goodbye to @CreatorsTh. Thank for your efforts coming into our first tour of the Pro League. We wish you the best with your future path in Rainbow Six Esports.”

Creators’ dismissal comes only a few days after Parabellum announced they will be letting go of Kyle “Whimpy” Anderson, who joined in March 2022.

“We would like to thank @WhimpyKid2 for his time with us,” the tweet read.

“Our debut in the #R6NAL was a special moment and we are grateful for his contribution.

“We wish you the best for the future!”

Although there have been no replacements announced yet, the rumor making the rounds is that Parabellum are looking to acquire Shaun “Gunnar” Pottorff.

Various sources are reporting that Gunnar and Parabellum have yet to reach an agreement, however, and that the player recently trialled with Mirage.

Parabellum finished seventh in Stage 1, and although they got some points for the Six Invitational, they finished outside of the top four and so missed out on qualification to the just-concluded Six Charlotte Major.

Despite their poor run in Stage 1, they had some decent victories and will be looking to build on those as they prepare for Stage 2.

A top-four finish will guarantee a spot in the Six August Major, where four North American teams will compete for the soon-to-be-announced prize fund.

At the moment, Parabellum are outside of the top 16 in the global points standings. If the season ended today, they would not be participating in the 2023 Six Invitational.

However, they have a chance to turn things around with strong performances in the four remaining events this year.

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?Beastcoast lost against Mirage last week, which eliminated them from the playoffs race, meaning this match is more a formality for them rather than a fixture they need to win. The same holds true for Astralis, who are already guaranteed a spot at Six Charlotte Major 2022, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t give their all and push for the no.1 seed.

Having choked their chance to qualify for the Major, beastcoast likely won’t be feeling too good heading into this match, and that won’t do them any favours facing the current hottest team of the NAL.

Astralis have been the best team in the region, and they need to win to lock in the top seed, so there is no reason to doubt them. Even at $1.55, Astralis are a good bet.

Mirage produced a massive upset last Wednesday when they defeated beastcoast (7-4). But it was a well-deserved win, thanks to Tomas “Tomas” Kaka and Robert “Melted” Kormylo, who ran over beastcoast, dropping 29 kills.

Unfortunately, even with that win, Mirage won’t be competing for a Major ticket, putting them in the exact same spot as Parabellum Esports, who are 2-0-1-5 with seven points. Regardless, the teams are still competing for SI Global Ranking points, so it’s not like we can expect them to take this bout too lightly.

Performance-wise, Parabellum and Mirage are very close. On the one hand, Parabellum have been more consistent, whereas Mirage pulled off a couple more upsets – against beastcoast and TSM. If we had to pick a team that is most likely to win, we would have to side with Parabellum, but at $1.57, they don’t offer any value.

Mirage have shown that they can be good, and if they can enable Tomas and Melted, they should have an excellent chance to steal another win on Wednesday. At plus money, Mirage are the better option.

Oxygen Esports are 5-1-0-2 with 17 points, just one ahead of XSET (5-0-1-2). These figures suggest we should be in for a close match, but the esports bookmakers are giving Oxygen a considerably better chance to come out ahead.

That may sound right, but we must remember that Oxygen have underperformed in games they should have won before. Most notably, they lost against DarkZero Esports (4-7) last Wednesday, and they weren’t too convincing against Soniqs (7-5) a day prior.

XSET also lost their most recent outings, but it was against Astralis, and they had an excellent chance to come out ahead. Moreover, XSET were 6-5 up in the match, so they were just one map away from winning the game. And then again, at 7-7.

This seems like a 50/50 match, so we have to take XSET at outsider odds.

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Here are our selections for TSM vs beastcoast and XSET vs DarkZero Esports, with top esports betting odds courtesy of the best esports betting sites.

It would be one thing if TSM were blowing leads and slipping in close games, but they are struggling quite severely and don’t look like a team that lifted the Hammer just three months ago. With a 1-0-1-4 record, TSM are in a dire spot, and they have yet to show any signs of life.

Perhaps this is a prime example of the “Six Invitational hangover”, but whatever the cause for their poor showings might be, TSM don’t look too dangerous.

They have lost four straight games ahead of this bout, including against Mirage (5-7), Spacestatuon Gaming (6-8), DarkZero Esports (4-7), and Astralis (1-7).

Beastcoast are the complete opposite as a team no one expected much from, yet they’re playing surprisingly well. Admittedly, they are 1-2 across their last three outings, but they have a win against Spacestation (7-5).

Talent-wise, you should still favour TSM here, but this is a very winnable match for beastcoast, who have looked much better than the reigning SI champions across the last couple of weeks. Beastcoast to win two maps to spare is worth a wager at the offered betting odds.

Prediction: Beastcoast -1.5 maps – $1.72 at GG Bet

XSET had a rough start to the tournament, losing against Spacestation Gaming (3-7) and TSM (3-7), but they have since gone unbeaten with wins against Soniqs (7-0), Parabellum Esports (7-1), beastcoast (7-3), and Mirage (7-2). XSET are on a tear, and as we head into the final week of action, the only question is how long will their run last?

DarkZero Esports are 3-1-1-1 with 12 points and a 2-1 run across the last week. They lost against Astralis (6-8) at the start of the month but have since beaten TSM (7-4) and Soniqs (7-4), which was expected.

DarkZero are priced as favourites for this bout which seems fair since they are one of the top North American Rainbow Six Siege esports teams.

However, they’re not a good bet at $1.66 against the in-form XSET.

We expect a close match, but at the offered R6S betting odds, we have to side with XSET to secure their fifth consecutive win.

Prediction: XSET to win – $2.10 at GG Bet.

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?Beastcoast are 2-0-1-1 with seven points, just one above XSET, who have managed a 2-0-0-2 record and six points over the first four days of action. So performance-wise, we would rank beastcoast and XSET very close, but you could give beastcoast a slight edge.

They have won against Parabellum Esports (7-5) and Soniqs (7-2) but weren’t as successful against DarkZero (7-8) and Oxygen Esports (2-7). On the other side, XSET looked very shaky in their opening two games against Spacestation Gaming (3-7) and TSM (3-7), but they found their stride and won back-to-back fixtures against Soniqs (7-0) and Parabellum Esports (7-1).

XSET have managed superior wins against the same opponents (Soniqs and Parabellum Esports), yet they are priced as underdogs due to their poor start to the season. That might sound fair, but we are leaning more towards the outsiders mainly due to their swift improvement over the last two rounds. Moreover, XSET have a much higher ceiling than beastcoast – they just haven’t found it yet.

?TSM have a win against XSET and an overtime loss against Spacestation Gaming. Meanwhile, DarkZero hold a 1-1-1-1 record, which is far below the expectations, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore Troy “Canadian” Jaroslawski and his crew.

You can’t brush off TSM’s victory against XSET, who are one of the region’s top squads talent-wise. But we must note that it came during the first week of the tournament when XSET were still a bit shaky, so we would take TSM’s success with a grain of salt.

Obviously, Brady “Chala” Davenport and co. are the reigning Six Invitational champions; however, you wouldn’t be able to tell based on their performances in this tournament. And until we see a bit more stability from TSM, we would prefer to be on the side of DarkZero at a better price.

Soniqs and Mirage are two of the worst-performing teams of the tournament, which is surprising, particularly for Soniqs, who were one of the best North American Rainbow Six esports teams last season. They won the NAL 2021 Season Finals in December and finished top eight at the Six Invitational 2022 in February, so Soniqs’s potential is much higher than they led us to believe.

If they start showing the same form from last season, Soniqs will bounce back, but their chances of reaching the Major are slim, with four defeats to their name (0-0-0-4). Mirage have at least won one game over the opening four against TSM (7-5), so we have to rank them higher than Soniqs, but talent-wise, Mirage are still below their regional rivals.

If we go by results, Mirage are an obvious choice, but we would value individual talent higher, so we have to side with Soniqs to secure their first tournament victory on Tuesday. It could be very close, but they’re worth a shot at $2.10.

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?Spacestation Gaming picked up two wins in the first week, against XSET (7-3) and Mirage (7-2), proving that they’re one of the top teams in the region. But the question is: are Spacestation Gaming really good enough to deserve the tag of a $1.30 favourite for this bout?

Astralis stomped Soniqs on the first day of NAL Stage 1 with 7-1, but they couldn’t deliver against Oxygen Esports (3-7) on Wednesday. That’s a weird set of results, and if Astralis want to win the Major, we need to see more of Day 1 Astralis rather than the Astralis that was playing against Oxygen.

David “Iconic” Ifidon and co. are $3.40 underdogs for this bout, which makes sense since they’re a team that might do well, playing against one of the most consistent R6S esports squads in the region. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Astralis show some resistance, but we need to see a bit more from them before we can trust Iconic and his crew with our money.

New-look Oxygen Esports looked extremely good during the first week of NAL Stage 1 and left quite a statement ahead of their clash with Spacestation Gaming. Most notably, Oxygen crushed TSM (7-4), largely thanks to their new member, Ethan “Nuers” James.

Oxygen looked just as good on the second day when they took out Astralis (7-3) in one of the most one-sided games of the first week. Admittedly, Oxygen did slow down after taking a 5-0 lead, but dropping three of their next five rounds was more Astralis playing well rather than Oxygen underdelivering.

Beastcoast won their opening series against Parabellum Esports (7-5) and narrowly lost against DarkZero Esports (7-8) on Wednesday to end the first week of action at 1-1. Even though forcing DarkZero to 15 rounds is impressive, they also lost against Parabellum, who were in Challenger League and recently lost two key members.

Beastcoast look like the second-best team here and by quite a significant margin. Take Oxygen Esports to cover the 2.5-round line.

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